Iran Victory Over U.S. Is World History Turning Point

Originally published on Brasil de Fato by Marco Fernandes
Republished with permission.

Amid the deep political polarization in the United States, there now appears to be something close to a consensus in the country. From Robert Kagan, the godfather of the neoconservatives, to Tucker Carlson, a prominent MAGA voice, and from the former neoliberal turned Global South–oriented developmentalist Jeffrey Sachs to his friend, the political scientist John Mearsheimer, they all agree on one thing: Iran won the war. While Fox News commentators lament the defeat of the Empire embodied in the Islamabad Memorandum — which, among other things, foresees an end to sanctions on the Persian country — and Bibi Netanyahu orders further bombings in Lebanon in an attempt to blow up the memorandum, Tehran is celebrating a historic achievement. This war, like the Battle of Stalingrad, has already changed the world. Iran has not only become the dominant power in West Asia, demonstrating military superiority over its neighbors, especially Israel. It can also claim the status of a global power, since it has not only prevented the largest military apparatus in history from imposing its interests by force, but now also de facto controls the world’s most critical energy choke point, the Strait of Hormuz.

The agreement signed remotely this week by presidents Donald Trump and Masoud Pezeshkian is still far from being implemented. In fact, both countries agreed to set 60 days for negotiations, but there are many doubts about its feasibility. In another exclusive interview with Brasil de Fato, the Iranian intellectual Mohammad Marandi expressed the distrust felt by much of the country regarding the status of the agreement: “At this moment, the Israeli regime is massacring families, children and women every day. And as long as that continues and the Israeli regime does not back down, there will be no implementation of the agreement.” That is why the two delegations did not travel to Switzerland this Friday, as originally planned.

Yet Iran’s bet on implementing the agreement remains, because, as Marandi notes, “obviously it is a victory for Iran, because the United States says it will return the stolen assets (…). It will lift sanctions on Iranian oil and energy exports. It will lift the siege on the Strait of Hormuz. And it will end the genocide in Lebanon, among other things.” The question now is what the negotiations will decide regarding the main U.S. demand, linked to the Iranian nuclear program and the fate of the 430 kg of enriched uranium at 60%. Under the agreement, it will be diluted domestically under strict supervision by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), rather than being sent to other countries, which would amount to yet another Iranian victory.

Finally, Marandi believes his country “will intensify its cooperation with the countries of the Global South, the BRICS countries and members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and its control over the Strait of Hormuz will increase its capacity to grow economically and exercise regional and global influence more than ever.” As negotiations continue toward ratification of the agreement, Iran is preparing for one of the biggest events in its history: the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — martyred in the first hours of the war — the main architect of the military capacity the country built over the past four decades and which stunned the entire world: “It will be a gigantic funeral. He was very popular in Iran and deeply loved among supporters of the Axis of Resistance and the Palestinian cause. He led Iran to this victory (…) His insistence that Iran confront the oppressor, defend the oppressed and preserve its sovereignty is something that has made the world see Iran in a new light today.”

_{Note: The video below is another interview with Prof. Marandi conducted directly by our channel. We thought it would be useful to share with our viewers, as it was recorded just one day after the interview by our friend Marco Fernandes, and is well worth watching alongside the article.}

The United States lost the war. It lost the military conflict. After 39 days of fighting, the Iranians emerged victorious. It was not just that Iran survived. Iran defeated the coalition: the United States, the Israeli regime, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. And, of course, the West as a whole backed them, as did the NATO countries. So the United States became involved in a naval war, and that proved to be a double-edged sword. As a result, the United States is destroying the global economy, and the Iranians outlasted them. So now the United States needs a deal. And the deal is not a bad one. It is a good deal, but the United States is not prepared to implement it. And if it does not implement it, Iran will not fulfill its commitments. At this moment, the Israeli regime is massacring families, children and women every day. And as long as that continues and the Israeli regime does not back down, there will be no implementation of the agreement.

• Israel did not sign the memorandum and continues to attack Lebanon, with Netanyahu claiming “freedom of action.” Does Israel in fact have veto power over this agreement? At the same time, yesterday Vance made a hard-hitting speech against Netanyahu and Trump surprisingly said he could bomb Israel. Do you think the U.S. will make an effort to force Israel to comply with the memorandum?

So far, there are no signs that the Americans will do anything to force the Israelis to stop their genocidal attacks against the Lebanese people and civilians. In fact, the father-in-law of a friend of mine, who was a postdoctoral researcher at Peking University, was killed this morning in Israeli airstrikes. He was at home and, along with other civilians, was trapped under the rubble. They all died. But the Americans, hypothetically or theoretically speaking, of course can stop the Israelis whenever they want. The Israeli regime is completely dependent on the United States. However, the Americans helped them carry out the Gaza Holocaust and the ongoing genocide in Lebanon. And they would like to see the Israelis continue carrying out the massacre and genocide. The only problem is that the actions of the U.S., as well as those of Trump and Netanyahu, have created a global economic crisis. And therefore Trump’s interests diverge from the interests of the Israeli regime. The Israeli regime does not care about the global economy. It does not care if it collapses. And Trump, of course, has his fate tied to the U.S. economy not collapsing. So the harsh words from Vance and Trump mean nothing to Iran. In the end, the only thing that matters for Iran is that the United States fulfills its part of the deal. Otherwise, Iran will not fulfill its part of the deal.

• The 14-point Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) foresees the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to the blockade in exchange, above all, for commitments not to seek nuclear weapons. Western media argue that Iran “did not concede anything concrete” beyond the Strait of Hormuz. From Tehran’s point of view, what did Iran actually secure in that memorandum — and what remains open for the next 60 days?

The agreement, the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), is obviously a victory for Iran, because the United States says it will return Iran’s stolen assets. It will lift sanctions on Iranian oil and energy exports. It will lift the siege on the Strait of Hormuz. And it will end the genocide in Lebanon, among other things. So the United States does not gain much in return. Opening the Strait of Hormuz is not a concession. It was already open before the war. It was the Americans who brought the situation to where it is now. And it was the Americans and the Israelis who caused this global crisis. They committed genocide in Gaza and Lebanon and are now destroying the global economy. But from what we are seeing now — with Trump saying he will not return Iran’s money, the stolen money from Iran, and the Israelis carrying out more genocidal attacks in Lebanon and murdering women and children — it is increasingly unlikely that the agreement, or the Memorandum of Understanding, will amount to anything.

• The U.S. says there will be no “toll” in Hormuz, but Iran says it will charge “fees” for services — as Egypt does in Suez, Turkey in the Bosphorus, Panama in its Canal. So what will the new status of the Strait of Hormuz be?

After the 60 days, if we even get that far, Iran will charge fees. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and will charge insurance fees, environmental protection fees and protection fees for the ships themselves. That is something the Iranians have decided to do, and they will control this trade. In the future, they will not allow U.S. Navy ships to enter the Persian Gulf to create another environment conducive to aggression against Iran. So the status of trade in the Strait of Hormuz will not return to how it was before. Trade will continue, but there will be a fee for each ship and no opportunity for the United States to use the Strait to militarize the Persian Gulf.

• The memorandum promises the end of UN sanctions, but they were reactivated by the European snapback in 2025, and the E4 conditions suspension on “verifiable steps.” How does Tehran see Europe’s role — guarantor or obstacle — in making sanctions relief real? If sanctions are indeed lifted, could we see an economic revival in Iran, which has a highly educated population and high-tech sectors developed under the framework of the resistance economy?

Well, the West is losing its global status and is in decline. And its ability to contain Iran is rapidly diminishing. Iran’s victory in this war, both on the battlefield during the 39-day conflict and during the siege war imposed by the United States — which is destroying the global economy and sought to destroy the Iranian economy — was also a success. Iran won in that respect too. That is why the United States sought a deal. And at the negotiating table, we also saw Iran emerge victorious. And I think those are all signs that the United States and the Europeans, especially the Europeans, are no longer really in a strong position to impose their will on other nations. They are in decline, while the Global South is rising, and I think Iran’s victory was, as Robert Kagan, the godfather of the neoconservatives, pointed out in his article in The Atlantic, the greatest catastrophe for the United States in all its history. This was a turning point in world history, and I believe that, despite the difficult and dark days ahead for the region and perhaps for the world, there is no doubt that Iran will be on the rise, while the West will continue to decline. Thus, Iran will intensify its cooperation with the countries of the Global South, the BRICS countries and members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and its control over the Strait of Hormuz will increase its capacity to grow economically and exercise regional and global influence more than ever.

• In April 2026, Russia and China vetoed a UN Security Council resolution — proposed by Gulf Arab states and backed by the West — that treated Iran as the sole source of tension in Hormuz. What role did the partnership with Moscow and Beijing play in reaching this agreement, and how does it shape Iran’s negotiating position from here on? Does this understanding with the U.S. reorient Iran toward the West, or does it consolidate its strategic anchoring in the Eurasian axis?

I do not think Moscow or China played a significant role in this agreement process. But the relationship between Iran and Russia, and between Iran and China, is obviously developing and strengthening. And for obvious reasons: both because they are natural partners and because of the West’s antagonism toward all of them. But Iran’s current deal with the United States — or, more precisely, the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the United States — does not take Iran away from its friends and close partners in the Global Majority. In fact, I do not see Iran’s relationship with the West improving at all. The United States is simply incapable of behaving like a normal country, and the Europeans are a hopeless bunch, becoming increasingly irrelevant. Therefore, Iran’s future is not in the West, but in the global majority.

• The funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is being organized for the first week of July. Could you explain the political and religious importance of this event, how many people are expected to attend, and what image Iran should project to the world through it?

It will be a gigantic funeral. He was very popular in Iran and deeply loved among supporters of the Axis of Resistance and the Palestinian cause. He led Iran to this victory. He created Iran’s capacity to defeat its enemy, the aggressor, in this war. He led the defeat of the Israeli and American regimes during last year’s 12-day war and, despite his martyrdom, what he had prepared was what led Iran to victory in this much more aggressive and much broader war that was imposed on the Iranian people. His support for the oppressed throughout the Global South — whether in Latin America, in Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and elsewhere, as well as in Palestine and southern Africa — is known to everyone. His insistence that Iran confront the oppressor, defend the oppressed and preserve its sovereignty is something that has made the world see Iran in a new light today, seeing beyond Western propaganda, and see Islam — and in particular Shia Islam — as an ideology of liberation and resistance against global hegemony and global oppression, and as an ideology that supports the oppressed wherever they are.