US Alliance or China Pivot?

Japan is an “America First” nation. It is completely dependent on the [suspicious link removed] militarily and is also seeking economic integration with the U.S.

All of Japan’s policies are based on the premise of “America First.”

Japan’s military buildup—which China criticizes as “new militarism”—is also a result of “America First.”

The Japanese economy, integrated with the U.S., has adopted a policy of not competing with America, effectively becoming a “Ninja” economy. In other words, with the exception of the automotive industry—its core sector—Japan stays out of the limelight, leaving competition with the U.S. to South Korea and China. Consequently, Japan has withdrawn from the production of finished goods such as home appliances and semiconductors, focusing instead on the production of materials and inspection equipment essential for those finished goods.

Japan has been purchasing large quantities of U.S. Treasury bonds to profit from U.S. financial capitalism, and has generally been successful in doing so.

However, since the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28 of this year, Japan’s “America First” strategy has begun to waver.

The U.S. surprise attack on Iran was reminiscent of Hitler, and the Trump administration’s “disregard for international law” came as a major shock to Japan.

Japan’s national principle is that “all people are equal under the law, and all nations are equal.” However, the United States appears to have regressed into a 19th-century-style nation where “might makes right.” Or perhaps one should say that it has “revealed its true nature, which had been hidden behind dazzling rhetoric.” In any case, this is an unexpected development for Japan.

A militarily small country like Japan relies on “international law.” If Japan were forced to accept Trump’s “might makes right” approach, it would inevitably lead to a clash with the United States.

Incidentally, Japan’s stance of “America First” is, of course, merely a “public stance.” Its “true feelings” are, naturally, “Japan First.”

Many of you are likely familiar with the Japanese cultural practice of distinguishing between “true feelings” and “public stance.” For the Japanese, their “official stance” and their “true feelings” are distinct.

In Japanese, “public stance” is called “TATEMAE,” and “true feeling” is called “HONNE.”

Japan’s “TATEMAE” toward China is, “Please stop trying to dominate the world through military force.” The “HONNE” however, are: “China is a neighbor and an important trading partner for Japan. It’s fine for China to become an economic powerhouse, but please don’t go starting a war with the U.S.”

Japan’s “TATEMAE” toward Russia is: “It is outrageous to invade Ukraine in defiance of international law.” The “HONNE” is: “Please restore peace quickly without starting a nuclear war. Russia, with its abundant resources, is a complementary and attractive partner for Japan, but since we have an official ‘America First’ stance, there’s nothing we can do about it…”

Now, regarding Japan’s military expansion plans, the Takaichi administration’s policies are facing headwinds. Consequently, the “new militarism” that China fears is extremely likely to encounter resistance within Japan itself.

In February of this year, the Yomiuri Shimbun—Japan’s newspaper with the largest circulation—and the Japan Institute of International Affairs (a policy research institute founded by former Prime Minister Shigeru Yoshida) conducted a joint public opinion survey.

The results show that there has been no change in the Japanese people’s “peace-oriented mindset.”

• In response to the question, “What kind of country should Japan aim to be in the future?” the top answers were “a safe country,” “a technology-driven nation,” “a country with comprehensive social security,” and “a country that advocates for world peace.”

• Regarding Japan’s international role, “maintaining and strengthening an international order based on the rule of law” was the most common response at 45%.

• Regarding strengthening Japan’s defense capabilities, 74% were “in favor.”

• 58% support increasing defense spending.

• 79% believe the Japan-U.S. alliance serves as a “deterrent against attacks on Japan.”

• 93% “feel” that China poses a security threat.

• 87% feel” that both North Korea and Russia pose threats.

• 60% “oppose” Japan’s arms exports.

• While the Japanese government adheres to the Three Non-Nuclear Principles—namely, “not possessing, not manufacturing, and not bringing nuclear weapons into the country”—79% of respondents supported “not possessing nuclear weapons,” 81% supported “not manufacturing them,” and 84% supported “not bringing them into the country.”

These poll results are a blow to the Takaichi administration. This is because Prime Minister Takaichi has long advocated for changing the principle of “not bringing them into the country” among the Three Non-Nuclear Principles.

As can be inferred from this public opinion poll, the approval rating for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet has declined from the 60–70 percent range when it took office in October 2025 to approximately 48–52 percent as of August 2026.

Prime Minister Takaichi is an unusual figure among Japanese politicians. According to media reports, she believes that “while it is true that Japan invaded China, Western countries did the same, so Japan alone should not be the one to apologize.” Questions regarding Takaichi’s understanding of history and her diplomatic skills have been raised since her days as a young lawmaker.

The world today is undergoing a period of upheaval, but the blame is being placed on the colonialism of the West and Japan in the past, past invasions of China, and the current Trump-style imperialism.

A hundred years ago, Western nations, just like Japan, sought to colonize China. Western nations have never apologized to China for this.

However, Prime Minister Takaichi’s view—that Japan does not need to apologize because Western nations joined Japan in “plundering” China—is strange. Even if there are accomplices, a robbery is still a robbery.

August 15 marks the anniversary of Japan’s defeat in World War II, yet Prime Minister Takaichi’s speech that day contained no mention whatsoever of an “apology” to Asian nations. She seems unaware of the fact that Japan and Western nations have “different positions and ideologies.”

Another point worth noting is that this public opinion poll was conducted before Israel and the United States launched their surprise attack on Iran. Therefore, now that the outcome of the war with Iran has become clear, Japanese public opinion may have shifted significantly.

In particular, the Japanese people’s trust in the United States must have declined substantially. This is because the United States denies “equality under the law” and “the rule of law,” and acts based on the principle that “might makes right.”

On August 20, the Trump administration imposed economic sanctions on ICC President Akane. Japan, which pursues the “rule of law,” and the United States, which adheres to “might makes right,” are clearly beginning to follow different paths. In other words, Japan’s “America First” strategy is beginning to waver.

However, given the Japanese national character, it will likely take some time for Japanese intellectuals to notice this wavering in the “America First” strategy. This is because Japan is a “OYAKATA HINOMARU” society—a country where the state protects its citizens. In other words, it is an overprotective nation.

As a result of the war in Iran, oil prices are rising worldwide. Gasoline prices are also expected to rise. In Japan, however, the price of one liter of regular gasoline remains stable at around one dollar. While inflation is certainly on the rise, the weak yen—a key factor driving it—is being kept in check with the cooperation of the U.S. government.

The Japanese enjoy peaceful and comfortable lives. With a monthly income of $2,000, one can live quite comfortably. With $3,000 a month, it’s even possible to live a life of luxury. As a result, no matter what is happening in the world, the Japanese have almost no sense of crisis. This attitude has remained unchanged for the past 80 years.

The other day, I asked 10 members of my tennis club for their opinions on the wars in Iran and Ukraine. The members of this tennis club are financially well-off and well-educated people.

“According to The New York Times, it looks like the 14 U.S. military bases in the Middle East won’t be able to be rebuilt,” I said.

“No way, I didn’t know that.”

“The U.S. military lost to Iran because of a shortage of weapons, didn’t they?”

“The U.S. will bounce back eventually.”

“Ukraine is fighting a battle it can’t win. They’re bound to lose.”

“No, I think it’s a stalemate—a quagmire.”

The other day, I had dinner with a Moscow correspondent for a TV network who was temporarily back in Japan.

“In May 2025, Russia overtook Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy. Not on a nominal basis, but on a real basis…”

“Really? Wasn’t Russia’s economic power supposed to be on par with South Korea’s?” was the reply.

The Japanese mass media only reports information originating from the West. Their sources include Reuters, the BBC, and the U.S. Institute for the Study of War. Many Japanese people trust the Japanese mass media and are satisfied with the information they receive from it.

Although the Japanese media is not subject to government censorship, it practices self-censorship. In Japan, this is called “SONTAKU” (anticipating the authorities’ wishes).

The Japanese, who are sensitive to authority, have a culture of “SONTAKU” toward those in power. They even practice “SONTAKU” toward the United States, a superpower.

As a result of this “SONTAKU” the Japanese media does not report information that is unfavorable to the U.S. or Europe. The mainstream media reports only what aligns with government policy.

Because Japan is an “America First” country, even if journalists or experts believe that the U.S.’s “rule by force” is wrong, they do not voice this openly.

Even when ICC (International Criminal Court) Director Akane was subjected to economic sanctions, journalists and experts remained silent. In other words, even if they feel anger, they do not speak their “true feelings.”

The Japanese take action only when they are on the verge of being colonized by Western nations, as was the case during the Meiji Restoration.

In other words, the Japanese do not take action until they are on the brink of being pushed off a cliff. However, once they do start moving, they act swiftly and in unison, like a massive school of sardines.

I have written an essay in English about this Japanese trait, so I recommend giving it a read.

Japan currently stands at a crossroads.

It wishes to break away from the U.S. policy of “might makes right.”

However, it is being ignored by China and Russia and is currently unable to form partnerships with them.

While the United States is reverting to 19th-century imperialism, China is making the independence and prosperity that the Japanese dream of a reality.

Last December, I visited China for the first time in a long while. I traveled to Shanghai, Nanjing, and Chengdu. Chinese companies were engaged in fierce domestic competition, and society was brimming with vitality. It was exactly like Japan during the 1970s, when the country was experiencing rapid economic growth.

Japan’s automotive industry is struggling under the pressure of rising Chinese companies, but it is now partnering with them to strengthen its competitiveness.

The Toyota electric vehicle launched in China this August incorporates Huawei’s OS and AI technology. Honda is also adopting DEEPSEEK’s AI technology. Other automakers are partnering with companies such as Alibaba.

During this trip, I sensed that the Chinese people are pro-Japanese and friendly. I also realized once again just how important ties with China are for Japan, a nation that relies heavily on trade. Japan is a country that cannot wage war. With few natural resources, trade is vital for Japan, and it must push forward with “diplomacy for peace.”

Although Japan stands at a crossroads, one of the major events that will determine its future is expected to occur by the end of this year. The Takaichi administration reportedly plans to entrust the storage of top-secret national information—including military data—to the cloud services of Amazon and Google.

Although Japan is often referred to as a “digital loser,” it possesses the technological capabilities and financial resources to develop its own AI, operating systems, and data centers. All it takes is the determination to develop our own AI, OS, and data centers. By the end of this year, it will become clear whether Japan has lost its spirit as an independent nation.

^{The author’s views are their own and do not necessarily reflect the blog’s.}

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