Arms Trends in Ukraine: 07 July

U.S. military aid to Ukraine is back on track. Russia did not use the momentum to demonstrate any readiness for negotiations; instead, it launched 1,800 drones at Ukraine over the past week. This apparently frustrated the U.S. administration. Trump promised to deliver “a major statement” on Ukraine on Monday, July 14. And expectations are high!

Meanwhile, the UK, Germany, and other partners are intensifying defense cooperation with Ukraine, focusing on strengthening its air defense and long-range strike capabilities.

This digest features curated research on last week’s developments across five categories: foreign military aid to Ukraine; joint initiatives; domestic production and internal affairs of Ukraine; Apple devices and the war (special section); and major developments on the battlefield.

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Foreign Military Aid

Already twice in the past seven months, the United States has halted and then resumed military deliveries to Ukraine. These pauses affected shipments that had already been approved by the previous administration and were in transit to Ukraine. Read about the first pause in March here.

Last week, following a communication between Trump and Zelensky, U.S. military supplies to Ukraine resumed, confirmed by the Ukrainian side. The weapons now moving into Ukraine include 155 mm munitions and precision-guided rockets known as GMLRS, two U.S. officials told The Associated Press.

Russia missed a strategic opportunity to use the pause in U.S. military aid—a development it had long requested—to signal readiness for a ceasefire. Instead, Russian forces intensified their strikes against Ukraine, launching a record number of over 700 drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles in a single night. This escalation is said to have undermined U.S. efforts to broker a ceasefire and angered Trump and his administration.

On July 11, it was reported that the US Senate Armed Services Committee has approved $500 million in security assistance for Ukraine in the draft 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The bill, which was passed by the committee on July 9, includes a provision to extend the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) through 2028, increasing authorized funding to $500 million from $300 million in 2025.

President Donald Trump and members of his administration say the U.S. will seek to sell weapons to Ukraine through NATO and European allies, as he promises a “major statement” on Russia on Monday, July 14.

US Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, expects a record-breaking supply of weapons to be delivered to Ukraine in the coming days.

Additional developments:

• 🇮🇹 🇫🇷 Ukraine is negotiating the supply of Italian-French SAMP/T systems capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi stated that Ukraine is actively working with partners to obtain these air defense systems. Although fewer in number compared to Patriot, these systems are available, and Ukraine is actively working with both Italy and France to secure additional units. Ukraine is also working to acquire smaller but effective air defense assets. These include NASAMS, IRIS-T, ASPID, and portable MANPADS systems capable of targeting aerial threats, including Shahed-type drones.

• 🇩🇪 Germany will support Ukraine by funding the purchase of long-range Patriot missiles in an amount estimated in the triple-digit millions, stated the coordinator of the aid task force for Ukraine.

  According to him, Germany has launched its own production of missiles for the Patriot systems, which will be independent of the US.

• 🇱🇹 🇫🇮 Lithuania and Finland will begin producing anti-personnel mines for Ukraine following their withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention.

  Lithuania plans to invest “hundreds of millions of euros” in the production of anti-tank and anti-personnel mines. Tens of thousands of units are expected to be ordered—possibly even more.

  In Finland, four defense companies—Nammo Lapua, Insta, Raikka, and Forcit Explosives—have expressed readiness or interest in producing anti-personnel mines.

  The chairman of the Finnish Parliament’s Defense Committee emphasized that “they are a highly effective and very cost-efficient weapons system.” According to him, Finland is also prepared to supply anti-personnel mines to Ukraine. More about landmines in Ukraine here.

• 🇳🇴 Norway has become the 12th country to join the Tallinn Mechanism — an international initiative that helps Ukraine strengthen its cybersecurity.

  As part of this partnership, Norway plans to allocate over NOK 25 million in 2025 to support projects that aim to improve the cyber resilience of Ukraine’s civilian and critical infrastructure.

• 🇬🇧 UK and Ukraine conclude historic deal for Thales Air Defence missiles. It will enable the delivery of more than 5000 Air Defence missiles from British business Thales.

  In total, the UK has committed £18.3 billion for Ukraine, with £13 billion in military support and £5.3 billion in non-military support.

• 🇨🇿 The Czech Republic approved a program to train eight Ukrainian F-16 pilots, scheduled to be completed by the end of 2026.

  The program includes 150 hours of flight training, with a budget of approximately 32 million CZK.

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Joint Initiatives

🇪🇺 Together with Ukraine, the European Commission announced the BraveTech EU initiative, aimed at accelerating defence innovation through closer cooperation. Under it, the parties will mobilize 100 million euros to find technological game-changers for war.