Arms Trends in Ukraine: 09 June

Russia, which has been terrorizing Ukraine with ballistic attacks, will soon get a taste of the same poison. Despite many obstacles, the Ukrainian-made ballistic missile is now ready for mass production. It has a larger payload and is faster than the American ATACMS, to which Russia has already shown vulnerability. At least 300–500 ballistic missiles are needed to strike the most critical components of Russia’s defense potential, so now is the time and place for allies to step in.

This week’s digest also features Israel, which officially claimed to have supplied Patriot systems to Ukraine—and then refuted those claims.

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Military Transfers to Ukraine

For over three years, Israel has maintained a stance of neutrality regarding the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war and has consistently refused to provide weapons to Ukraine. Multiple reports suggest otherwise.

According to the Israeli Ambassador to Ukraine, Israel quietly supplied Ukraine with Patriot air defense systems. The ambassador did not specify how many systems were transferred or when delivery took place. Although last year, media reports suggested that Ukraine, the US, and Israel were discussing the possible transfer of up to eight systems, there was no official confirmation at the time. „The Patriot systems that we once received from the United States are now in Ukraine,“ Ambassador Brodsky said in an interview. „When people say that Israel did not help militarily, that is not true.“

Two days later, the Israeli Foreign Ministry told the Kyiv Independent that Israel had not transferred any Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine.

This is not the first time that confusion has arisen regarding Israel’s military aid to Ukraine. In late January 2025, I reported on Israel’s offer to transfer Russian-made weapons, previously seized from Hezbollah storage sites in Lebanon, to Ukraine (see here).

Next week, the news appeared regarding the possible transfer of 90 Patriot air defense missiles from storage in Israel to Poland for eventual delivery to Ukraine. While some OSINT sources suggested that the transfer had occurred, there was no official confirmation of this information (see the newsletter here).

Under U.S. export laws, even third-party transfers of Patriot systems must be approved by the U.S. government.

A new Patriot system costs at least $1 billion and requires around 90 trained personnel to operate.

In April, Zelensky said that Ukraine was ready to purchase 10 Patriot systems from the United States for $15 billion. During a briefing on June 10, State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said that discussions are underway for European countries to provide Ukraine with additional air defense systems, and that “We want them [Ukrainians] to have air defense capabilities, absolutely. We want them to be able to defend themselves against incoming missiles”.

Additional developments:

• The upcoming fiscal year’s defense budget of the United States will include a reduction in funding for Ukraine’s security assistance initiative, Secretary of Defense Hegseth stated at a June 10 hearing before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense. “[US] administration takes a very different view of that conflict,” he said. “We believe a negotiated, peaceful settlement is in the best interest of both parties and our nation’s interests, especially with all the competing interests around the globe.”

• Norway plans to transfer significantly more F-16 fighters to Ukraine than previously stated. The annual report on exports and imports indicates that Norway intends to provide Ukraine with 14 F-16 aircraft, despite official announcements confirming only 6 fighters. Delivery schedules for the additional unannounced F-16s remain undisclosed.

• Germany plans to provide an additional 1.9 billion euros ($2.2 billion) in military aid to Ukraine this year, German Defense Minister Pistorius said on June 12. Part of the new aid will help finance a German-backed plan for Ukraine to produce its own long-range weapons.

  Germany will deliver new IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine under a three-year supply plan. It was reiterated that Berlin has no plans to provide Taurus long-range missiles.

• Ukraine is expected to get nearly 1.7 billion pounds ($2.26 billion) from the U.K. to buy Rapid Ranger air defense systems and Martlet lightweight multirole missiles.

• A public petition calling on the UK Government to transfer surplus Warrior infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) to Ukraine has passed 14,000 signatures, prompting an official government response in the coming days. The petition argues that the UK’s existing Warrior fleet—due for disposal by 2030—could be sent to bolster Ukraine’s defences without new cost to the taxpayer.

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Domestic Production and Internal Affairs

Ukraine’s domestically developed short-range Sapsan ballistic missile has successfully completed combat testing and is in the process of serial production. It has a larger warhead and is faster than the American ATACMS.