Arms Trends in Ukraine: 17 November

Ukraine once again faces a “peace plan” imposed by external actors. As in previous cases, the proposal demands no compromise from the Russian Federation. If anything, it undermines mobilization efforts and weakens donor support for Ukrainian military units that already operate with extremely limited financial and human resources. Strengthening Ukraine’s defence capabilities remains a key priority—both in wartime and in peace.

Last week brought several promising agreements with Ukraine’s European partners that will contribute to this goal.

In this edition:

• Ukraine–France Strategic Agreement: Rafale and SAMP/T;

• Fire Point: Ballistic Missiles, Drones, and Controversies;

• Ukraine and Greece Launch Naval Drone Production;

• 20+ additional developments in Ukraine and Russia.

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Military Transfers to Ukraine

Reuters reported that the United States has warned it may scale back intelligence sharing and weapons supplies to pressure Ukraine into accepting the framework of a U.S.-brokered peace agreement. The sources said that Kyiv is facing more pressure from Washington than during any earlier peace talks, and that the U.S. expects Ukraine to sign the framework by the next Thanksgiving Day (Thursday, Nov. 27).

Separately, the U.S. State Department has approved a possible sale to Ukraine of equipment and services for upgrading Patriot air-defense systems.

The modernization will primarily focus on bringing M901 launchers up to the M903 standard, enabling them to use newer missile types. The total cost of the upgrade is estimated at up to 105 million USD. The main contractors will be RTX Corporation and Lockheed Martin.

“At $105 million, this package is too small to drastically improve Ukraine’s missile defense capabilities in the short term,” Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told the Kyiv Independent.

Additional developments:

• 🇨🇦 The Canadian government sent 25 M113 armored personnel carriers and approximately 75,000 spare parts. Also, Canada has transferred 125 AIM-7 Sparrow air-to-air missile components and 38 LAU-7A launchers.

  In addition, 30 million CAD is being provided for winter equipment, including sleeping bags, jackets, footwear, and other gear.

• 🇪🇸 Spain will transfer 40 IRIS-T surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine.
  The exact delivery dates have not been disclosed. Zelensky clarified that the missiles are intended specifically for ground-based air-defense systems, such as the IRIS-T SLS or SLM. Overall, under the new aid package, Spain will provide Ukraine with 300 million euros’ worth of weapons. Another 100 million euros will be provided through the PURL initiative.

• 🇬🇧 Ukrainian Air Force has received British Terrahawk Paladin air-defence systems. Terrahawk systems were developed by MSI Defence Systems. Their transfer to Ukraine became known in October 2023 as part of a UK military aid package, although the number of systems was not disclosed.

• 🇬🇧 The UK government has rejected the possibility of transferring MQ-9 Reaper drones to Ukraine, even though the aircraft are scheduled to be decommissioned soon. Defense Express noted that the previous White House administration explicitly rejected supplying MQ-9A drones to Ukraine. The position of the new administration is not officially known, but it is possible that its opinion has not changed.

• 🇮🇪 Ukraine has received five radar stations from Ireland, although their exact type has not been officially disclosed. This was stated in the transcript of government debates held on October 14.

  According to an analysis by Militarnyi, the radar systems are likely Giraffe Mark IV units, preparations for the transfer of which were announced earlier this year.

• 🇩🇪 Ukraine has received all four Skynex air-defense systems promised by Germany as part of its military assistance.

• Ukrainian F-16 fighter jets have intercepted more than 1,300 Russian missiles and drones since they entered service.

• TNT shipments to Ukraine from NATO allies have been disrupted as supplies were diverted to Israel for its campaign against Gaza, a report released by the Palestinian Youth Movement says.

  “According to initial reports, this ammunition was supposed to be destined for Ukraine, but in December 2023, the U.S. government announced that shells worth $147 million would also be sold to Israel,” the report reads.

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Ukraine–France Strategic Agreement: Rafale and SAMP/T

On 17 November, the Presidents of Ukraine and France signed a letter of intent. Its contents are not yet known, but Zelensky previously described it as “historic.”