Arms Trends in Ukraine: 18 August

Happy Ukraine’s Independence Day! 🇺🇦 These days, much is being said about what security guarantees for Ukraine should look like. To me, the answer is clear: support Ukraine’s defense production. It is the fastest-growing defense industry globally—driven by engineering talent, innovation, and agility. It is an undeniable asset for the entire democratic world, and it would be unreasonable to overlook it.

In this edition:

• Ukraine’s offer to purchase $100 billion worth of weapons from the US – how realistic is it?

• The Flamingo cruise missile: what is known so far;

• All advanced Ukrainian weapons now incorporate AI;

• 20+ other key developments.

Thank you for reading and supporting my work!

Foreign Military Aid and Direct Purchases

In exchange for American security guarantees, Ukraine offered to purchase $100 billion worth of U.S. weapons, financed by Europe, the FT reported, citing a document it had seen. According to the proposals, Kyiv and Washington will also conclude a $50 billion deal on producing drones with Ukrainian companies that have become pioneers in this technology since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

The document does not list the full range of weapons, but it states that Ukraine seeks to purchase at least 10 Patriot air defense systems, as well as missiles and other equipment to protect its cities and critical infrastructure.

A $100 billion weapons purchase from the U.S. represents truly astronomical proportions, which even the American defense industry would not be able to fulfill quickly, says Defense Express.

In particular, under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) mechanism, the U.S. delivered arms and services worth $117.9 billion to customers in the 2024 fiscal year, according to a report by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA).

In other words, $100 billion for the U.S. is equivalent either to the annual volume of all arms sales under the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program — the main mechanism for government-to-government procurement — or to 11.8% of the entire export order portfolio of the American defense industry.

🇺🇸 The WSJ reported that the Pentagon has, for months, been blocking Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to strike inside Russia. A high-level Defense Department approval procedure, which hasn’t been announced, has prevented Ukraine from firing any U.S.-made long-range ATACMS against targets in Russia since late spring.

Separately, last week, the administration approved the sale of 3,350 Extended Range Attack Munition (ERAM) air-launched missiles, set to reach Ukraine in about six weeks, according to two U.S. officials. The $850 million arms package, largely funded by European nations and including additional equipment, was delayed until after Trump’s meetings with Putin and Zelensky.

Several U.S. officials noted that use of the ERAM, with a range of 150–280 miles, will require Ukraine to obtain Pentagon approval.

Additional developments:

• 🇫🇷 Ukraine will receive 50 more French Bastion wheeled armored vehicles. The delivery will bring the total number of Bastion vehicles in Ukraine’s armed forces to 61.

  Plans to transfer 11 Bastion armored vehicles to Ukraine were first announced in April 2023 but were later put on hold. The absence of an intergovernmental agreement between Paris and Kyiv was cited as the reason for the delay.

• 🇨🇦 Canadian Prime Minister announced that the $2 bln CAD military aid package pledged in June will be delivered to Ukraine in September. The funding will be allocated as follows:

  • $835 million to procure a range of critical equipment for Ukraine, including armoured vehicles, medical equipment, spare parts, small arms, ammunition, and explosives, as well as additional drone capabilities and other urgently needed equipment and supplies for Ukraine.

  • Approximately $680 million (USD $500 million) for the purchase of a NATO Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) package of military equipment sourced from the United States to strengthen Ukraine’s air defence capabilities and provide other urgently needed military assistance.

  • $220 million to purchase drone, counter-drone, and electronic warfare capabilities, including investments in joint ventures between Ukrainian and Canadian industry, in line with the Letter of Intent on Canada-Ukraine Joint Production of Defence Material.

  • $165 million to support Canada’s ongoing work in Ukraine Defense Contact Group Capability Coalitions, including efforts to source critical capabilities for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

  • $100 million to source ammunition and explosives through the Czech Ammunition Initiative.

• 🇳🇴 🇩🇪 Norway and Germany are funding two Patriot systems, including missiles for Ukraine. Norway is contributing approximately seven billion kroner for Ukraine’s air defense. The air defense systems will be delivered from Germany. In addition, Norway is contributing to the procurement of air defense radars from the German manufacturer Hensoldt and air defense systems from Kongsberg.

• 🇱🇹 🇱🇻 🇪🇪 Volunteers from Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, under the “Baltic Convoy” initiative, will deliver around 80 vehicles to Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

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Ukraine’s Flamingo Cruise Missile: What Is Known So Far

On August 17, the world learned that Ukraine started serial production of its first indigenous heavy cruise missile — the Flamingo, or FP-1. Since then, almost daily, new information has emerged about its characteristics and production numbers. I’ve compiled the available details into this bullet-point report.