Arms Trends in Ukraine: 21 July

Unclear messaging from President Trump has left many wondering how many Patriot batteries Ukraine is actually set to receive. A week after the announcement, Ukraine has secured official confirmation for only three systems, despite the initial figure being 17.

Germany and other countries in the Ramstein coalition are increasing their support to Ukraine, with a particular emphasis on air defense. Now, Ukraine aims to produce 1,000 drone interceptors per day and requires $6 billion to meet this goal.

This edition features five regular sections: foreign aid, joint initiatives, domestic production, key developments on the battlefield, and other news. This week, I’ve also included a special section on investments in Ukraine’s defense tech sector.

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Foreign Military Aid

The meeting of Ukraine’s allies in the Ramstein format took place on July 21, exactly one week after the Trump administration’s decision to finally provide Ukraine with new weapons funded by European NATO allies, and shortly after the U.S. joined the “coalition of the willing.” This time, 52 countries participated in the online meeting. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth joined for the first time after a break.

Ukraine’s new defense minister outlined three key priorities for allies:

1. Air Defense – He urged the U.S. to make such systems and missiles available for purchase and called on European partners to finance the acquisitions.

2. Financial Support – Ukraine needs $6 billion to close its procurement gap this year. The funds would go toward producing more FPV drones to hold the front line, interceptors to counter Shahed attacks, and long-range weapons to strike deep into Russia.

3. Planning for 2026 – Shmyhal called on partners to allocate funds for Ukraine in their 2026 budgets, stressing the importance of EU’s SAFE (Security Action for Europe) program, which will offer €150 billion in low-interest, 45-year loans to EU members to boost defense investments.

In 2025, international security assistance to Ukraine reached a record $43 billion — the highest level since the start of the full-scale invasion.

🇩🇪 At this meeting, Germany announced the decision to provide Ukraine with additional air defense systems and critically needed ammunition. Currently, Berlin is preparing to send its eighth IRIS-T air defense system to Ukraine. Germany will also contribute to the swift delivery of five urgently needed Patriot systems.

Reportedly, it will first transfer its own systems to Ukraine and then receive new ones from the U.S. in return. This arrangement will reduce Ukraine’s waiting time. As a result, Berlin will be first in line for new Patriot systems from the United States.

Germany will also co-finance, together with the United Kingdom, the production of over 200,000 rounds of 35mm ammunition for the Gepard anti-aircraft gun system, which will be delivered to Ukraine in a short timeframe.

The country will fund the comprehensive procurement of long-range Ukrainian-made drones. In addition, cooperation between Germany and Ukraine on other types of long-range weapons will continue. The first Ukrainian long-range missiles funded by Germany are expected to enter service with the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the end of July.

According to Ukraine’s Ambassador, Germany has already delivered over 60 Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine and is preparing to send another IRIS-T air defense system. He added that the German system has proven highly effective in Ukraine, particularly against Shahed drones. However, Russia has since changed its drone attack tactics, making it harder to intercept targets. Read more about counter-Shahed solutions here.

The German company HENSOLDT received a large order to supply radars to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense. As part of a comprehensive order package worth more than EUR 340 million, the company will supply high-performance TRML-4D radars and short-range SPEXER 2000 3D MkIII radars.

Other developments:

• 🇨🇦 Canada will continue supporting Ukraine’s defense industry through the “Danish model” and allocate 20 million CAD for Leopard tank maintenance in Poland.

• 🇳🇱 The Netherlands will provide €200 million for interceptor drones and €125 million for F-16 maintenance.

• 🇳🇴 In 2025, Norway will allocate a total of €1 billion for drone procurement, including €400 million for purchases from Ukraine’s defense industry. Also, Norway announced its readiness to provide additional funding to Ukraine to strengthen its air defense, in close coordination with Germany.

• 🇸🇪 Sweden is preparing a new aid package with air defense systems, artillery, and equipment.

• 🇬🇧 The United Kingdom allocated £700 million (approx. $944 million) to purchase artillery shells, air defense, and long-range missiles for Ukraine in 2025. Over the past two months alone, more than £150 million ($202.5 million) worth of weapons—mainly air defense systems and artillery ammunition—have already been delivered. Procurement of hundreds of air defense missiles and thousands of artillery shells is currently underway.

• 🇱🇹 Lithuania will allocate 30 million euros and join a group of European countries planning to jointly purchase Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine.

• 🇱🇻 A Latvian company won a contract from the Drone Coalition to supply Ukraine with drones worth €24 million. Production will begin shortly, and the first batches of drones are planned to be delivered to Ukraine this fall.

• 🇺🇸 The U.S. approved two major arms sales to Ukraine totaling $322 million, aimed at strengthening its air defense and ground combat capabilities. A $172 million package will support the HAWK Phase III missile system, including refurbishment, spare parts, training, and contractor assistance—enhancing Ukraine’s ability to counter threats like Shahed drones. A separate $150 million deal focuses on Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles and includes comprehensive MRO support, training, and logistics to ensure long-term operational readiness.

• 🇺🇸 The U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) has issued two approvals related to the upkeep of air defense systems and M109 self-propelled howitzers for Ukraine. The estimated total cost is $330 million, though the final figure under firm contracts may be lower.

• 🇺🇸 Patriot air defense systems promised to Ukraine by Trump won’t arrive before spring 2026, German outlet Spiegel reported on July 23, citing sources familiar with the plan. The delay stems in part from confusion among NATO allies over Trump’s original proposal. When Trump spoke about sending Patriots to Ukraine, he didn’t specify whether this meant 17 full batteries.

  On July 25, Zelensky said that Ukraine wants 10 new Patriots but only has 3 secured: „I have officially received confirmation from Germany for two systems, and from Norway for one“.

• 🇮🇱 On July 24, an early-warning system provided by Israel in 2023 was officially activated in the Kyiv region. This system enables warnings to be issued only for specific districts rather than across the entire region. In 2023, Ukraine’s ambassador to Israel stated that the Red Color early-warning radar system, also known as Tzeva Adom, would be adapted to Ukrainian conditions.

  The Tzeva Adom system is designed to detect rockets and drones and track their trajectories using radar. It calculates the time it will take for airborne threats to reach a given location and issues an alert indicating how many minutes or seconds people have to seek shelter.

• 🇫🇷 Ukraine lost a French-made Mirage 2000 fighter jet to a reported technical failure. The pilot safely ejected from the aircraft.

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Joint Initiatives

Denmark’s Terma, a top European supplier for F-35 jets and known in Ukraine for its F-16 pylons, is partnering with Ukraine’s Odd Systems to jointly develop a cost-effective air defense system to intercept enemy drones.