Arms Trends in Ukraine: 22 September

The web of missile and Shahed flight paths you see over Ukraine can just as easily spread to Europe. Time to wake up. Otherwise, Russia will be bombing kindergartens in Tallinn and hospitals in Paris. The EU’s plan to build a “drone wall” on its eastern border starts with a year of developing a sensor […]

Autor: RSS29. september 2025

Menej ako 1 min. min.

The EU’s plan to build a “drone wall” on its eastern border starts with a year of developing a sensor network to spot drones, followed later by building interception capabilities. But spending years on counter-drone R&D and scrambling F-35s every time Russia sends drones worth $30,000 is not a solution.

Countries around the world must urgently learn from Ukraine — but also continue supporting its defence and strike capabilities, as it is currently the only line of defence against Russia.

In this edition:

Patriot delivery from Israel;
Flamingo, Air Defence and Ballistic Missiles: Fire Point’s Main Priorities;
HIMERA Walkie-Talkies for Secure Military Communication;
European Drone Wall & Ukraine’s Drone Line;
+ 20 other key military developments in Ukraine and Russia;

If you’re new and curious about my work, here’s last week’s digest — fully open access: read here.

For my 34th birthday, which is tomorrow, I’ve decided to launch a campaign to raise $3,400 for the fiber-optic equipment for the military unit of my university friend, Vasyl, whom many of you know from my previous fundraiser. Together, we have already collected funds for the Mavic 3T drone that is currently serving with his unit for reconnaissance purposes.

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Foreign Military Aid and Direct Purchases

While researching military transfers to Ukraine, I find the greatest pleasure in reporting on the transfers from countries that stay “neutral” and maintain warm relations with Russia. Israel is one of the most interesting cases.

🇮🇱 Last week, President Zelensky announced that Ukraine had received a Patriot air-defense system from Israel. It is already in operation, protecting Ukraine against Russian strikes.

“The Israeli system has been operating in Ukraine for a month,” Zelensky told reporters. “We will receive two more Patriot systems in the fall — that’s all I can say.” The mention of two additional Patriot systems does not refer to Israel, but rather to deliveries from other partners — most likely from Germany.

Israel has denied supplying Kyiv with equipment, saying that the systems were American and returned to the US, which reportedly refurbished them and sent them to Ukraine

This development follows the same pattern I described back in June: the Israeli Ambassador to Ukraine stated that Israel had quietly supplied Ukraine with Patriot air defense systems, only for the Israeli Foreign Ministry to deny the claim two days later. Read about the June developments here.

For over three years, Israel has maintained a stance of neutrality regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war and has consistently refused to provide weapons to Ukraine.

Israel is home to 1.3 million Russian speakers – representing 15% of the population and making Russian the third most common native language in Israel after Hebrew and Arabic. The warm ties between Israel and Russia began to shift after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, due to Moscow’s continued relations with Hamas.

There have been multiple claims of Israel considering sending various military equipment to Ukraine, including Russian small arms captured from Hezbollah. In Nov. 2024, Israeli companies reached out to Ukraine to collaborate on countering Iranian drones.

Meanwhile, Russian media are holding on to the hope that Israel will continue to stay neutral in the Russia-Ukraine war: “The possible appearance of a decommissioned Patriot air defense system, previously owned by Israel, in Ukraine does not mean that Israel’s policy has changed — the transfer of weapons comes from the Americans, not the Israelis”.

So far, several of Russia’s partner countries have already supplied lethal weaponry to Ukraine despite their neutral status: 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan (fighter jets and other equipment) following its quarrel with Moscow; 🇷🇸 Serbia (ammunition), motivated mainly by profit; and 🇹🇷 Türkiye (drones, heavy machine guns, laser-guided missiles, etc), seeking to maintain balance in the Black Sea region. More to come?

Additional developments:

🇺🇸 Zelensky said Kyiv is working on a “mega deal” for weapons purchases from the US. The package under discussion is estimated to be worth $90 billion, according to the media reports.

According to Axios, Zelensky asked Trump to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles. It was the only weapons system on the list that Trump did not agree to sell to NATO countries on Ukraine’s behalf, according to a source with knowledge of that process. The Tomahawk, manufactured by RTX, has a much longer range than the missiles NATO has made available so far, flying up to 1,000 miles vs. around 190 miles for U.S.-made ATACMS.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance confirmed on Sept. 28 that the U.S. is “looking at” providing Kyiv with Tomahawk missiles, as Moscow continues to refuse bilateral and trilateral peace talks brokered by President Donald Trump.
🇩🇰 Denmark announced a new military aid package to Ukraine worth 1.6 billion kroner (approximately €400 million). As part of its 27th aid package, Denmark will finance the purchase of weapons from Ukrainian manufacturers for delivery to the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

A portion of the funds will also be directed toward other forms of assistance.
🇪🇪 Estonia has allocated €10 million under NATO’s new PURL (Prioritized Ukraine Requirement List) initiative, aimed at procuring priority weapons for Ukraine. The specific use of the Estonian funds has not yet been disclosed. However, based on the experience of other countries’ contributions, priority purchases remain focused on air defense systems from the United States.