Arms Trends in Ukraine: 29 September

It feels like Ukraine–U.S. relations are warming. Last week, Trump authorized U.S. agencies to provide Ukraine with intelligence data for long-range missile strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure. This is a long-awaited development, especially considering evidence that China has already been supplying intelligence for Russia’s strikes.

Additionally, either Tomahawk or Barracuda missiles are reportedly being considered for transfer to Ukraine. And finally — the best part — both countries are working on a major “drone deal,” a $50 billion drone production partnership. The U.S. is interested in Ukraine’s battlefield technology, and Ukraine is ready to share it — anything to keep that much-needed aid flowing.

It looks like the U.S. is back — or am I being too optimistic?

In this edition:

• Tomahawks and Intelligence Sharing;

• Ukraine-U.S. Drone Deal and Military Exports;

• Ukraine and Europe: Expertise exchange in Counter-Drone Measures

• Russia Intensifies attacks on railways and energy infrastructure;

• 20+ other developments in Ukraine and Russia.

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Foreign Military Aid and Direct Purchases

🇺🇸 Things are moving quickly in U.S.–Ukraine relations. The transfer of Tomahawk missiles is still under consideration, and Russia is taking this very seriously. Putin warned that if the United States supplies Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, it would lead to the destruction of Moscow’s relationship with Washington.

Oleh Katkov, editor-in-chief of Defense Express, said that if the U.S. decides to send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, the number would likely be small. Instead, Washington might offer Barracuda missiles. The U.S. has the industrial capacity to produce many of those — they are inexpensive and can even be launched from transport aircraft such as the An-26. “The real price of a Tomahawk is $5–6 million per missile, but in different export contracts, the price varies. For example, for the Netherlands, the U.S. set a price of $12.5 million per Tomahawk. But for potential U.S. allies facing China, such as Japan, the price is half as much,” Katkov added.

Meanwhile, WSJ reported that the U.S. will provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure. President Trump recently authorized U.S. intelligence agencies and the Pentagon to assist Kyiv with such operations. Washington is also urging NATO allies to provide similar support.

This expanded intelligence sharing marks the first time the Trump administration will aid Ukrainian long-range missile strikes against energy targets deep inside Russian territory — a clear signal that U.S. support for Ukraine is intensifying as peace efforts stall.

According to Katkov, long-range missiles require a large dataset for navigation during flight over complex terrain and to evade enemy air-defence systems. He added that when the U.K. and France sought approval to let Ukraine strike Russian territory with Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles, Washington’s consent was required — not because the missiles are American, but because their guidance systems rely on U.S. geospatial data for Russian terrain. Britain doesn’t possess this data and must source it from the U.S., which effectively controls where these missiles can be used.

Mick Ryan writes in Futura Doctrina that if the United States were to provide both targeting data and long-range strike weapons such as Tomahawks, it would mark a significant development in the war. While it would not end the conflict, it would greatly enhance Ukraine’s ability to destroy key elements of Russia’s military infrastructure — including oil facilities, defence factories, airfields, and ammunition depots. More importantly, it would send a powerful political message to Putin that his time is running out.

Last week, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service reported that it had documented instances of China providing Russia with satellite reconnaissance data used to carry out missile strikes on Ukraine, including attacks on facilities owned by foreign investors. At least three Chinese SAR reconnaissance satellites flew over the areas in Ukraine’s west that were the main focus of a Russian missile and drone attack on the night of 4-5 October.

For instance, in August 2025, Türkiye’s Bayraktar drone plant in Ukraine sustained two strikes that inflicted serious damage on its production facilities. It was reportedly the fourth attack on the site within a six-month span.

Additional developments:

• 🇺🇸 The Telegraph reported that the U.S. government shutdown has stalled arms talks between Ukraine and the U.S. and could delay weapons deliveries.

• 🇨🇦 Canada has dropped plans to supply banned guns collected in its national buyback program to Ukraine after officials in Kyiv showed little interest, and most of the firearms turned out to be unsuitable for combat. According to authorities, the “vast majority” of the weapons were unsuitable because they did not meet NATO compliance standards.

• 🇸🇪 Ukraine is expecting to receive Swedish Gripen fighter jets. Sweden’s Ministry of Defense confirmed that negotiations on a possible transfer of the aircraft are ongoing, but no agreement has been reached yet.

• 🇬🇷 Reportedly, Greece is preparing an arms package for Ukraine that includes dozens of heavy weapon systems and tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition.

  The Ministry of National Defence plans to transfer via the Czech Republic 60 M110A2 203 mm self-propelled howitzers, 150,000 shells for them, and thousands of 70 mm and 127 mm Zuni rockets. The defence package is valued at more than €199 million.

• 🇵🇱 Poland will continue to finance the operation of Starlink terminals in Ukraine as part of its support efforts. During wartime, this technology is critically important for keeping hospitals, schools, critical infrastructure, and frontline regions connected.

  According to officials, more than 50,000 Starlink terminals are currently operating in Ukraine, of which over 29,000 were provided by Polish partners. Read my report Global Starlink Outage: How Important This Is for Ukraine.

• 🇪🇺 European Commission President announced that half of the €4 billion transferred by the European Union to Ukraine on October 1 will be directed toward drone production. The €4 billion tranche forms part of the EU’s ERA initiative.

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Ukraine-U.S. Drone Deal and Military Exports

In August 2025, Ukraine reportedly proposed a massive $150 billion security package to the United States, combining $100 billion in European-financed American weapons purchases with a $50 billion drone production partnership. Now, the plans for the latter are beginning to take shape.