Arms Trends in Ukraine: 8 December

Ukraine’s future as a sovereign state is directly linked to the strength of its military capabilities, which remain the primary security guarantees the country can rely on. According to Zelensky, Ukraine has moved to the active use of its domestically produced long-range missiles, including the long-range Neptune, Flamingo, and Sapsan. With the necessary testing and codification procedures underway, mass production of Ukraine’s FP-7 ballistic missiles is expected to begin in spring 2025.

In this edition:

• Disparities in military aid to Ukraine across Europe;

• When Ukraine will have ballistic missiles, and how the “Flamingo” missile was developed;

• Export map for domestic manufacturers;

• Ukraine needs more chief designers in defence tech;

• and 10+ additional developments in Ukraine and Russia.

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Military Transfers to Ukraine

🇳🇱 The Netherlands has announced an additional €700 million in support for Ukraine for next year. The country typically allocates around €3.5 billion annually to assist Ukraine, but €2 billion from the upcoming year’s budget has already been used. As a result, the Green–Labour alliance has proposed increasing the 2026 budget to cover the shortfall.

At the end of November, outgoing Prime Minister Schoof stated during parliamentary debates that he did not currently see a need to allocate further billions for Ukraine. He argued that other countries — particularly those in southern Europe — should step up their contributions.

According to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker, disparities in military aid to Ukraine across Europe widened further in 2025.

France, Germany, and the United Kingdom sharply increased their military contributions compared to 2022–2024: Germany nearly tripled its average monthly allocations, while France and the UK each more than doubled theirs. Even so, relative to their 2021 GDP, all three countries remained well below the leading Nordic donors — Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Reaching Nordic levels would require Europe’s largest economies to substantially scale up their assistance.

The contrast with Italy and Spain is even more striking: neither country increased its military allocations in 2025. Italy reduced its already modest levels by 15 percent compared to 2022–2024, and Spain provided no new military aid in 2025. This limited engagement significantly weakened Europe’s overall response.

Additional developments:

• 🇨🇿 The Czech Republic has completed the delivery to Ukraine of 1.8 million large-caliber munitions promised for 2025, former Prime Minister Petr Fiala reported. The Czech initiative to procure ammunition for the Armed Forces of Ukraine from third countries has been operating since February 2024, with around 20 nations joining the effort. Deliveries of shells began in the summer of 2024.

• 🇨🇦 Starting in 2022, Ukraine has been receiving Canadian Roshel Senator armored vehicles in both APC and MRAP variants, with the total number exceeding 2,000 units by the end of 2025.

  Ukraine began receiving Roshel Senator vehicles back in 2022 as part of military aid. The production of vehicles is currently localized in Ukraine.

• 🇺🇸 The United States House of Representatives approved a compromise version of the National Defense Authorization Act for the 2026 financial year (NDAA). A key element of the document for Kyiv is the continuation of funding for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). The bill allocates US$800 million for Ukraine, divided equally into two tranches of US$400 million over the next two years. This programme allows the US administration to purchase weapons and equipment directly from manufacturers for transfer to Ukraine’s Armed Forces, rather than drawing them from existing US military stockpiles.

  It includes a provision prohibiting the Pentagon from independently redirecting weapons that were manufactured for Ukraine. In cases of extreme need for such weapons, the law requires that compensation be provided.

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When Ukraine Will Have Ballistic Missiles, and How the “Flamingo” Missile Was Invented

For Ukraine, it will be very difficult to win this war without possessing critical weapons—particularly ballistic missiles. That is the main focus of Ukraine’s company Fire Point.
Fire Point is demonstrating rapid progress in the missile program — something the Ukrainian state was unable to achieve over the past 30 years.

This is a summary of a BBC Ukraine interview with Fire Point leadership.