In the February 8th House of Representatives election, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a landslide victory, winning over two-thirds of the seats. This was an inevitable outcome and represents the normal state of Japanese politics. This election did not focus on policy. The main issue was whether to keep Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in […]
Menej ako 1 min.
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In the February 8th House of Representatives election, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a landslide victory, winning over two-thirds of the seats. This was an inevitable outcome and represents the normal state of Japanese politics.
This election did not focus on policy. The main issue was whether to keep Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in office. The public overwhelmingly demanded her continuation.
Prime Minister Takaichi is indeed popular, especially among young people and women. Why?
Her primary appeal is that she is a woman. Historically, Japan has had several female rulers. The first was a queen in the 3rd century named Himiko. Japan enjoyed peace under her rule. Since then, about ten female rulers emerged, all with favorable reputations. Prime Minister Takaichi is Japan’s first female ruler in 256 years.
As evident from the national flag, the Hinomaru, Japan is a country with a sun cult, and the sun goddess is Amaterasu Omikami. Japan is a country where a goddess is the supreme deity, and the Imperial Family’s Ise Shrine also enshrines Amaterasu Omikami. Therefore, Japan is fundamentally a country with little discomfort toward women becoming rulers.
The second appeal is that Prime Minister Takaichi is extremely unique. Since her university days, she has worn leather jackets, ridden large motorcycles, and played drums in a heavy metal band. She is undoubtedly a talented woman, but her actual capabilities remain largely unknown. It would be a waste to remove Japan’s first female leader in 256 years after just three months.
The third appeal stems from the fact that women and gentlemen are pinning their hopes on it potentially halting the flow of power harassment and sexual harassment within Japan’s male-dominated society.
I stated that it is normal for Japan to have the Liberal Democratic Party hold a majority of seats. This is because 85% of Japanese people share the same opinion, so one political party is sufficient. In other words, Japan is a world of uniformity.
In Japan, everything from the Bible and the Quran to Shakespeare, Sartre, and Dostoevsky is available in Japanese. Unless you go abroad, you feel no need to learn a foreign language. Consequently, Japanese people’s information sources are heavily skewed toward the Japanese-language world. Trust in the government and media, which provide Japanese-language information, is also high. In other words, Japanese people are susceptible to authority. Therefore, they tend to share similar perspectives and ways of thinking, acting in lockstep like a school of sardines.
Since its founding, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has been a “conservative centrist” party encompassing members from liberal to conservative. Looking at the policies of Japan’s opposition parties, aside from the Communist Party, they differ little from the LDP’s policies.
Given this national character, it’s safe to say that the outcome of this election will not significantly alter the direction of politics.
The potential issue lies in Prime Minister Takaichi’s foreign policy. As a typical Japanese person, concerns have long been raised that PM Takaichi might cause problems in diplomatic matters. PM Takaichi is expected to fundamentally follow the foreign policy of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, but the question is whether she can actually do so.
The late PM Abe strongly supported China’s “Belt and Road“ initiative. Although it didn’t materialize due to the COVID turmoil, he invited President Xi Jinping to Japan as a state guest.
Concluding a peace treaty with Russia has been a long-held aspiration of the LDP since its founding. The late PM Abe visited Russia 11 times, held meetings with President Putin 27 times, and built a deep personal relationship of trust.
U.S. President Trump also placed great trust in the late PM Abe, who appeared to serve as a diplomatic consultant for Trump during Trump’s first term.
Can PM Takaichi achieve the same? It’s not impossible. However, PM Takaichi would need the fortitude to fear no assassination.
The late PM Abe was assassinated. Continuing his policies is undoubtedly dangerous. Following Western policies, like former PM Kishida did, is the safest course. The non-fiction book ‘Assassination’ is a bestseller in Japan, but its conclusion states, “It is highly likely there was another assassin, and the truth remains unknown.” While the true assassin remains unidentified, it is certain they opposed Abe’s policies.
PM Takaichi’s future policy direction and resolve will become clear this June. Japan imports LNG from Russia’s Sakhalin-2, but the US desperately wants to halt this. If PM Takaichi prioritizes “Japan First,” imports will continue. If she acts as America’s “loyal dog Hachiko,” LNG imports from Russia will be stopped.
The major difference between the Abe administration and the Takaichi administration is the rapidly accelerating decline of Western nations. Canada’s Prime Minister confessed at the Davos Forum that the West’s “rule-based order” was a lie. The conflict between Democrats and Republicans within the United States is severe. Europe and the United States are at odds.
The security strategy announced by the United States states, “Allies must defend themselves with their own capabilities.” In other words, the era of security reliance on the United States has come to an end. Therefore, now is precisely the time when the value of Abe’s diplomacy is becoming apparent.
The sentiments of Japanese women and young people supporting PM Takaichi are also crucial for gauging Japan’s future.
According to the “Survey on Postwar 80 Years” released by the Japanese government on January 9 this year, 83% of Japanese citizens oppose “nuclear armament.” They fervently desire “Japan to be a country that never starts a war again.” Over 80% believe the “peace constitution” contributes to Japan’s peace and security. Strong rejection persists regarding the U.S. atomic bombings of Japan (67.4%). They also recognize Japan’s declining international standing and economic weakening. What Japan needs most is “correcting income inequality” (93%), “countermeasures against the declining birthrate,” and “achieving a comfortable standard of living.” Japanese people are negative about President Trump’s policies, with 85% disapproving. They also feel danger, with 84% concerned about Japan being drawn into war.
In other words, supporters of PM Takaichi fervently desire the maintenance and construction of “Japan as a peaceful nation” and the realization of “a comfortable life.”
Meanwhile, in 2022, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces conducted a national defense awareness survey targeting Japanese people in their 20s and 30s, yielding interesting results. The question was: “If Japan were invaded, would you fight?” 71.8% of Japanese men and women answered “Not fight.” Looking at men alone, only 40% said they would fight. Crucially, only 53.7% of young people were even interested in Japan’s defense issues.
Given such supporters, the foreign policy the Takaichi administration can pursue will likely be a “realistic peace-seeking strategy.”
Specifically, it means watching the progress of a multipolar world, observing the struggles between the United States and Europe, and the struggles within the U.S. ruling class, while slowly seeking Japan’s own path. In other words, Japan will re-adopting Abe’s diplomacy of maintaining friendship with the U.S. while building friendly relations with China, Russia, and India.
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