Putin’s Economic Fantasia and the Moral Cost of Avoiding Reality

According to Russia’s own Federal Statistics Service, real disposable incomes have stagnated for over a decade (Rosstat, 2025). Trust me, those numbers point to a deeper malaise.

As I have rhetorically posed and again over the last 6 months, If a state devotes itself to growth without truth, is it building a future or orchestrating an illusion?

Imagine a man piling sand into the shape of a throne. He sits atop it as the tide rolls in. At first, it holds. People gather. Applause erupts. But no one dares speak of the waves. This is the economic theatre of Vladimir Putin.

At the 2025 St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Putin declared that Russia must „avoid recession under any circumstances.“ Not prevent, not endure, but avoid outright. Military spending, he said, will begin to shrink next year. Interest rates must fall. Diversification will rise. All will be well.

Here’s the thesis: These aren’t measures of reform. They’re rituals of denial. A regime that has chained itself to perpetual mobilisation cannot pivot to peace without unraveling its myth.