Many people have a negative impression of Russia. At best, they call it an “oil exporter,” while at worst, they call it a “gas station.” This is clearly an emotional, internet-specific term. Mainstream social media platforms are essentially algorithmic economies. Since algorithms drive these economies, their design and results tend to be highly evocative and […]
Menej ako 1 min. min.
Many people have a negative impression of Russia. At best, they call it an “oil exporter,” while at worst, they call it a “gas station.” This is clearly an emotional, internet-specific term. Mainstream social media platforms are essentially algorithmic economies. Since algorithms drive these economies, their design and results tend to be highly evocative and emotional to attract users to social media.
Therefore, we can see that today, both the Chinese and English Internet are filled with a large number of illogical and emotional statements, so that many people are led astray by social media, while truly valuable analytical things are ignored. This is probably the tragedy of modern human civilization as a whole.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the Internet, especially the overseas Chinese Internet, was flooded with a large number of illogical pro-Ukraine remarks. They fantasized about Russia’s “defeat” and Ukraine’s “victory”. These remarks made me doubt human IQ for the first time.
I’m analyzing, from a logical and factual perspective, why Russia can’t fail and why Ukraine can’t win. Whether we’re close to Ukraine or like Russia, it doesn’t change the objective facts. Only through rational analysis can we clearly see our place in the world. This attitude, independent of any particular position, should be a necessary skill for every modern person, because only in this way can we extract from the vast amount of information available that truly helps us survive.
Obviously, the strategic position of oil in Russia is a crucial factor that influences the world pattern, whether it is Russia’s victory on the battlefield or future competition.
Maybe you will be very surprised, because friends who know a little about the history of the Soviet Union know that the collapse of the Soviet Union was caused by the crazy suppression of oil prices by the United States in the 1980s. In other words, Russia suffered a loss in oil, but Russia surprisingly still chose oil as its strategy. This is indeed incredible.
So why does Russia still choose oil? The story begins with Putin’s election as Russian president.
Putin was elected President of Russia in 2000. After taking office, he keenly discovered the reality of Russia, that is, Russia has abundant oil and natural gas reserves, which far exceed its own needs.
In fact, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has undergone a long period of deindustrialization, which has caused Russia’s industry to shrink compared to the Soviet era. This has led to a relative surplus of Russia’s oil relative to its industry.
As the president of Russia, Putin naturally had to take advantage of this abundant oil resource. However, unlike the Soviet era, Russia did not use oil to exchange for food. Instead, it vigorously developed the food industry while developing the oil industry.
In other words, with Putin’s strong support, Russia has not only become an oil exporter, but also a food exporter. This has prevented Russia from falling into the “oil for food” dilemma of the late Soviet era.
Moreover, Russia not only has a developed food industry but also a strong fertilizer industry. This fertilizer industry is so strong that even the United States has to import Russian fertilizers.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, Western countries led by the United States launched multiple attacks on Russian oil in order to weaken or even destroy Russia’s oil economy.
First, at the direct level, European and American countries have directly imposed sanctions on Russia’s oil exports, and any country or region that purchases Russian oil will face secondary sanctions.
Secondly, at the indirect level, Europe and the United States have also imposed restrictions and sanctions on Russian oil and its so-called “shadow fleet” in an attempt to limit or even cut off Russia’s oil exports.
Finally, on the military level, starting this year, Europe and the United States began to direct Ukraine to launch multiple direct strikes on Russian refineries, also hoping to hit the Russian economy.
Faced with economic and financial sanctions from Europe and the United States, Russia essentially launched a killer counterattack. Led by Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Russia implemented a “ruble-for-oil” settlement system, effectively thwarting these sanctions. Nabiullina also became a legend in Russia after this battle.
Using rubles to settle oil is equivalent to the Russian version of the “petrodollar” plan, except that it is “petroruble”. The core of this plan is to link Russian oil to the ruble. Anyone who wants to buy Russian oil needs to use rubles to settle.
This means that any buyer of Russian oil will need to convert their currency into rubles and then use them to purchase Russian oil. This will ensure the Russian ruble’s exchange rate, curb capital flight, and completely thwart European and American attempts to devalue the ruble by imposing sanctions on Russian oil or setting minimum prices.
As for Ukraine’s attack on Russian refineries, the Russians did not seem to react much to this. The Russians only rushed to repair them after the Ukrainian attack, and then launched another round of drone or missile attacks on Ukraine afterward, but did not carry out large-scale retaliation against Ukraine.
Why? Because Russia does not need to retaliate against such foolish actions of the West.
Trump’s acquiescence in Ukraine’s attack on Russian refineries is definitely a bad move, because attacking Russian refineries will further increase the pressure for rising international oil prices. If oil prices rise, this will offset the loss of Russia’s export oil share due to the refineries.
What’s more, Russia can even make a big fuss about Ukraine’s attack on the refinery and reasonably and legally reduce or even significantly reduce Russia’s oil exports. This will further increase the pressure on international oil prices to rise, which is definitely not good news for European and American countries that are committed to lowering oil prices and easing inflation.
Given that Western countries, especially the United States, have unconditionally supported Israel’s military operations in Gaza and the Middle East, leading to growing anger among Arab countries, an oil embargo against the United States is likely to occur. This may also be why Trump is eager to take action against Venezuela, because Venezuela greatly eased the oil pressure on the United States during the last oil embargo.
It is now extremely difficult for Trump to control Israel’s Netanyahu’s military adventures, so he can only seek to control Venezuela’s oil interests.
This is the fundamental reason why President Biden strictly prohibited Ukraine from attacking Russian oil facilities. Obviously, Biden’s strategy was correct, but Trump’s coming to power completely reversed this policy, which will directly lead to the complete failure of the United States and the West.
The defeat in Ukraine is a foregone conclusion, and Russia is now more focused on future global competition. The oil held by Russia will obviously become an important factor in future competition.
