US Trade Truce & BRICS Risks

In this explosive Think BRICS interview from November 2025, we sit down with Dr. David Oualaalou (Global Perspective Consulting, former Washington DC security analyst) and filmmaker/geopolitical analyst Elizabeth Ann Stewart (hosts of the Geopolitics and Money Show) to dissect the fragile US-China trade agreement on rare earth minerals—and why it reveals America’s declining global leverage.

What You’ll Discover:

The Trump administration announced a “trade truce” with China in late 2025, temporarily suspending rare earth export controls in exchange for reduced tariffs. But was this really a victory for Washington? Our expert panel exposes the uncomfortable truth: China controls over 90% of global rare earth processing capacity, giving Beijing unprecedented leverage over everything from F-35 fighter jets to electric vehicles and military drones. As Elizabeth Stewart warns, “It’s a truce in name only.”

Key Topics Covered:

✅ Rare Earth Minerals as Geopolitical Weapons – Why China’s infrastructure advantage in processing (built over 40+ years) makes US manufacturing uncompetitive
✅ Military Supply Chain Vulnerabilities – How Pentagon weapons production depends entirely on Chinese-processed materials
✅ The Real Cost of Tariffs – Why American consumers, not Chinese manufacturers, are paying 47-57% tariffs on essential goods
✅ BRICS Dedollarization Accelerates – Ethiopia, Pakistan, and Egypt pivot toward yuan-based trade as dollar reserve status drops from 70% to 50%
✅ US Debt Crisis Warning – With debt-to-GDP at 122-124% (historically, currencies collapse at 135%), how long can dollar dominance last?
✅ Russia-China Strategic Alliance – Why the partnership David Waluk predicted 20 years ago is now reshaping the global order
✅ Malaysia & India’s Hedging Strategies – How ASEAN and BRICS countries navigate between US pressure and Chinese economic integration

Why This Analysis Still Matters:

Weeks after this interview, negotiations on the rare earth agreement remain incomplete, validating our guests’ skepticism about the “truce.” China has not signed binding commitments, tariff reductions are minimal, and fentanyl-related issues remain unresolved. Meanwhile, BRICS expansion continues with nine new partner countries joining in 2025, alternative payment systems bypassing SWIFT sanctions, and central banks worldwide stockpiling gold instead of dollars.

Expert Insights You Won’t Hear Elsewhere:

Dr. Waluk draws on decades of Washington policy experience to explain why the US military-industrial complex—not the White House—drives foreign policy, and why rare earth access threatens future weapons sales to allies. Elizabeth Stewart, with her background in film production and systems thinking, breaks down supply chain economics in ways mainstream media ignores: why American labor costs make reshoring manufacturing economically impossible, and how Trump’s tariff policy injects “massive uncertainty” that benefits no one.

Critical Questions Answered:

• Can the US rebuild rare earth processing infrastructure quickly enough?

• Why did Malaysia cave to US pressure despite deep China trade ties?

• Is the dollar’s 50% reserve currency status sustainable?

• How do Russia-China cooperation dynamics differ from Cold War rivalries?

• What happens if China fully implements rare earth export controls?

This interview provides essential context for understanding today’s multipolar transition. As Dr. David Oualaalou emphasizes, “Context matters in international relations”—and this conversation delivers the historical perspective and structural analysis missing from surface-level news coverage.

Join the Conversation:
📌 Subscribe to Think BRICS for weekly geopolitical analysis beyond Western narratives
💬 What’s your take on the trade truce? Drop your thoughts in the comments

Guest Channels:
🎙️ Geopolitics and Money Show
📺 Dr. David Oualaalou