Arms Trends in Ukraine: 14 July

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In this digest, I cover several timely topics — including how NATO countries are scrambling to reinforce Ukraine’s air defenses, and why Switzerland likely won’t receive its long-awaited Patriots any time soon.

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Foreign Military Aid

Last week, U.S. President Trump announced the deployment of 17 Patriot missile defense systems to Ukraine, in what he called a major step to ‘tame Russia’ and strengthen NATO’s eastern flank. Some Patriot missile defense systems should arrive in Ukraine „within days,“ he said.

According to this plan, European allies will donate these systems to Ukraine and buy American replacements. NATO GenSec Rutte mentioned six NATO countries – Finland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, and Canada – that were willing to participate in the weapons-purchasing scheme. Reportedly, France and Italy will not take part in this initiative

The central question was who would donate the Patriot batteries, and when.

Later that week, Switzerland announced that the U.S. Department of Defense had informed it of the decision to divert a Swiss order for Patriot air defense systems to support Ukraine. The contract includes five fire units originally intended for Switzerland, comprising a total of 17 launchers. Delivery was scheduled to begin in 2027 and be completed in 2028.

It was not immediately clear whether the Swiss-ordered Patriots would go directly to Ukraine or would replace units in other European countries that may be donated to Kyiv.

Also, it remains unclear when the promised U.S.-made weapons, especially the Patriot systems, might reach Ukraine. German Bild reported that Ukraine may receive the first Patriot air defense system, which was intended for Switzerland, in six to eight months.

It was originally planned that the Americans would transfer the Patriot air defense system to Ukraine from their own stocks, and Germany would cover the cost of ordering the new system. But then Trump insisted that the US military could not transfer any of its air defense systems. Europe will have to not only purchase new air defense systems, but also transfer existing systems from its own stockpile to Ukraine.

“We are working very closely with the Germans on the Patriot transfer,” U.S. Air Force Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) said.

Germany is prepared to finance two systems, and Norway a third one. Other NATO countries are also ready to contribute to the costs.

“We only have six left in Germany,” Pistorius told Financial Times, explaining that Berlin had already given three Patriot systems to Kyiv while two others were lent to Poland and at least one remains unavailable due to maintenance or training.

Generally, a single Patriot battery costs about $1 billion to build, depending on the model, and interceptor missiles cost about $3.7 million each.

Axios reported that the United States plans to sell NATO countries about US$10 billion worth of weapons that will subsequently be sent to Ukraine. The supplies ultimately bound for Ukraine include missiles, air defense weaponry, and artillery shells.

Additional developments:

• 🇺🇸 Reportedly, the possibility of the US providing long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine was discussed by Trump and Zelenskyy, but no agreement has been reached. If the decision is positive, it will likely enrage Putin. The precision cruise missiles are capable of striking Moscow and have a range of 1,600km.

  Tomahawks have been on Ukraine’s weapons wish list for a while now, and were included in Zelensky’s „Victory Plan“ which he presented to Biden in October 2024. Vadym Skibitskyi, the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR), told the Guardian that Tomahawks „are not easy to use.“ “The main launch platforms are combat ships or strategic bombers. We don’t have any strategic bomber aircraft,“ Skibitskyi said.

• 🇺🇸 Trump said that Ukraine should not target Moscow with strikes, after the Financial Times reported that he had privately encouraged Ukraine to escalate attacks on Russia.

• 🇩🇪 German Chancellor Merz stated that following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to supply weapons, Ukraine would „very soon“ receive additional support that would help it carry out long-range strikes. He suggested that these capabilities could be deployed in Ukraine within just a few weeks.

  For the context, NATO countries decided to limit public disclosure of military aid for Ukraine, citing growing concerns that Russia is actively using open-source information for both propaganda and military advantage. Read more here.

• 🇸🇪 Swedish Prime Minister stated that Sweden will continue to „contribute to swift and substantial deliveries to Ukraine“.

• 🇱🇻 Latvia delivered a batch of six-wheeled Patria armored personnel carriers to the Ukrainian Defence Forces.

• 🇩🇰 Denmark decided to provide Ukraine with satellite communication services through the European Defense Agency (EDA). Under the project, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will receive access to special terminals for satellite communication.

• 🇫🇷 Zelensky announced an agreement with France to train a larger number of Ukrainian pilots on Mirage fighter jets, alongside those who are already undergoing training.

• 🇦🇺 Australia’s government said it had delivered M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine as part of a A$245 million ($160 million) package. Ukraine has taken possession of most of the 49 tanks given by Australia, and the rest will be delivered in coming months, said Defence Minister.

  Considering that the official decision to transfer the tanks was made in October 2024, and the final batch is expected to arrive in a few months, the entire delivery process will take approximately 11 to 12 months.

• 🇧🇪 Belgium contributed EUR 140 million to the International Air Defense Initiative (IAAD) fund, which is a project supporting Ukrainian air defense at the request of the German Foreign and Defense Ministers.

• 🇵🇱 Polish defense companies and arms trade intermediaries exported nearly 300 armored vehicles and 106 artillery systems to Ukraine in 2024. These deliveries include modern Polish self-propelled artillery units alongside artillery systems of Soviet design.

• 🇮🇹 Italian Beretta SC70/90 assault rifles have been officially integrated into the arsenal of several Ukrainian military units – Militarnyi reports. These weapons were likely supplied as part of Italy’s 10th and 11th defense aid packages to Ukraine, with the 10th package approved in December last year and the 11th following in May this year.

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Joint Initiatives

Ukraine signed several strategic agreements with Western defense companies to bolster Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) during the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome. Among them: