Arms Trends in Ukraine: 5 January

Russia has continued to strike Ukraine’s energy infrastructure amid exceptionally harsh winter conditions. As a result of the drone attacks, approximately half a million residents of Kyiv and Kyiv oblast were left without electricity and heating during some of the coldest days of the winter.

Although the reported supply rate of interceptor drones has reached around 1,500 units per day, this alone remains insufficient to counter sustained Russian salvo attacks. Ukraine is therefore urgently requesting additional air defence missiles from its partners.

In this edition:

• Russia struck Lviv region with an Oreshnik missile;

• Ukraine’s Brave1 will present Ukrainian drones in the U.S. Roadshow;

• Obstacles to integrating lasers and microwaves in Ukraine’s air defence;

• 10+ additional developments in Ukraine and Russia.

I have an ongoing poll in this post to determine whether I should keep Arms Trends in Ukraine as my priority section or switch the focus to Drone Warfare. Please help me decide!

Russia Struck Lviv Region with Oreshnik Missile

On the night of January 8–9, Russia for the first time struck the outskirts of Lviv, just 70 km from the European Union border, with an Oreshnik ballistic missile. The missile was traveling at 13,000 kilometers per hour. No more than 15 minutes passed between the explosions in Lviv and reports by monitoring groups of a probable launch from Kapustin Yar shortly beforehand.

No civilians were injured. Damage was reported to a critical infrastructure facility and six private cargo trucks.

According to an official statement by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), the components found at the site belong to the Oreshnik missile system. Among the recovered parts were:

• a stabilization and guidance unit;

• components of the propulsion system;

• fragments of the orientation mechanism;

• nozzles from the separation stage platform, among others.

It became the second use of such a weapon following a similar strike on Dnipro on November 24, 2024.

Although Oreshnik can carry nuclear warheads, the strike on Lviv—like the one on Dnipro—was evidently carried out without such a warhead. The Lviv Regional Military Administration confirmed that radiation levels in the region remain normal.

Russian media claimed that the strike was allegedly carried out against either major underground gas storage facilities or a joint NATO–Ukraine Combined Forces command post. ISW reported that available visual evidence indicates that the Russian Oreshnik struck a Ukrainian defence industrial enterprise in Lviv City.

Ukraine’s Air Force Command emphasized that such a missile has not yet been intercepted because interception is technically difficult.

Oleh Katkov, Editor-in-Chief of the military-political outlet Defense Express told Liga.Net, that Ukraine currently—and in the foreseeable future—does not have the capability to intercept the Oreshnik missile.

Oreshnik is a medium-range ballistic missile with separable warheads. It must be intercepted before the warheads separate. This requires exo-atmospheric interception—i.e., in space. However, the key question is when exactly the missile’s warhead separation occurs and whether it is within the engagement envelope of these missile defence systems.

Oreshnik can theoretically be intercepted by the ship-based Standard Missile-3 and Israel’s Arrow-3 missile defence system. According to Katkov, SM-3 missiles are used on ships equipped with the Aegis system. There are also two U.S. Aegis Ashore bases—one in Romania and one in Poland. The Arrow-3 missile defence system, meanwhile, is deployed in Germany.

The American Patriot system is designed to counter tactical and operational-tactical ballistic missiles, such as the Iskander. However, medium-range missiles require different systems: THAAD, SM-6, and SM-3.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, the Kremlin likely targeted the westernmost part of Ukraine with an Oreshnik missile to deter Europe and the United States from providing security guarantees to Ukraine.

Fabian Hoffman, in his Missile Matters, wrote that Oreshnik poses a distinct challenge to European security. This challenge stems less from the missile’s technical characteristics, which remain overstated, than from the way it exposes and amplifies existing European capability gaps that require urgent attention. Non-nuclear Oreshnik strikes are best deterred by presenting Russia with a credible non-nuclear counterstrike capability. However, European states currently face a substantial capability gap in deep-strike weapons, including medium- to intermediate-range ballistic missile systems comparable to the Oreshnik.

Defence Cooperation

🇺🇸 In March 2026, Ukraine’s defence innovation cluster Brave1 will conduct an investment tour across the United States to present Ukrainian drones and defence-tech developments to American investors and potential partners.