BRICS or U.S.? Japan’s Strategic Shift Explained

According to a JNN poll, as of November 3rd, the support rate for the Takaichi Cabinet stands at an exceptionally high 82%. Support is particularly strong among young people. While the Takaichi Cabinet’s diplomatic capabilities had been viewed with concern, it can be said that its success in meetings with President Trump and President Xi Jinping has boosted its standing.

The Takaichi administration is continuing the policies of the late Prime Minister Abe, and this continuity was the reason for its diplomatic success. Abe’s diplomacy aimed to maintain good relations with the U.S., engage in dialogue with China, and seek a peace treaty with Russia.

During the recent Japan-U.S. talks, the Trump administration demanded Japan halt natural gas transactions with Russia, but Prime Minister Takaichi refused, stating it was not in Japan’s national interest. This was welcome news for the Japanese public.

Regarding China, Japan sought to maintain a mutually beneficial relationship and pledged continued dialogue. The Takaichi Cabinet emphasizes prioritizing Asia and ASEAN, a stance also well-received. The Takaichi Cabinet fundamentally pursues a strategy of respecting the United States, showing no major shifts in defense strategy.

Meanwhile, Japan’s intellectual class is flustered by America’s sudden change of heart. The Japanese have long recognized the United States as the epitome of democracy. Yet, observing the Trump administration’s actions, America appears to have reverted to a 19th-century style of imperialism and colonialism. Moreover, prioritizing U.S. interests above all else, it blatantly rejects free trade, even harming close allies.

The Trump administration is attempting to launch an invasion of Venezuela without U.S. congressional approval. It also appears eager for war with Iran. It is supplying weapons to the Israeli Zionist regime for its massacres. These actions are plunging Japan’s intellectuals into anxiety.

Japan is a nation of “respect the Emperor, expel the barbarians.” When America’s Black Ships arrived 185 years ago, 100% of the Japanese people demanded “Honor the Emperor and repel the Westerners.” Yet just 15 years later (upon the establishment of the Meiji government), 100% of the Japanese had become advocates of opening the country. Why? Because Western nations had deemed barbarians possessed overwhelming military and industrial might, and Japan could not compete.

Modern Japanese also practice “respect the Emperor, expel the barbarians,” but today “respect the Emperor” means “respect the United States,” and “expel the barbarians” means “expel the BRICS.” Yet, Japan’s intellectuals are beginning to question: “Is it right to respect the United States?”

Japan’s intellectuals know the United States cannot beat China in industrial production. Militarily, America’s decline is severe. If China and Russia cooperate against the United States, America stands no chance. Even if the US goes to war with Iran, it is highly likely to lose. Financial capitalism has made the US a country that no longer needs industrial production capacity. It can simply print dollars and buy products from China.

The Takaichi administration has been given the opportunity to accomplish what the late Prime Minister Abe could not. One is to invite President Xi Jinping to Japan as a state guest. The other is to conclude a peace treaty with Russia. The late Prime Minister Abe met with President Putin 27 times. He foresaw that concluding a Japan-Russia peace treaty would become essential for Japan.

A declining United States will gradually withdraw from the 750 U.S. military bases scattered around the world. This aligns with U.S. national interests.

Japan will also cease to need U.S. military bases. When that happens, a Japan-Russia peace treaty will become Japan’s most critical priority. The Northern Territories issue exists, but with no Japanese residents currently living there, it is unlikely to become a major point of contention. It will likely be a reserved matter until a good solution emerges.

The quick-to-adapt Japanese public will likely become entirely pro-opening within a decade. That is, they will choose to wash their hands of the G7 and join hands with BRICS.